Nov 29 2024: Oil prices saw a slight increase on Friday as concerns over potential supply risks resurfaced following accusations of ceasefire breaches between Israel and Hezbollah. Additionally, a delay in the OPEC+ meeting left investors anticipating decisions on future output policy.
By 0516 GMT, Brent crude futures rose by 0.1% to $73.38 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 0.7% to $69.17 per barrel. However, on a weekly basis, Brent and WTI prices declined by 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively, amid reduced trading volumes during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which began on Wednesday, initially calmed fears of disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies. However, mutual accusations of violations on Thursday reignited concerns. Despite the conflict, oil exports from the region have so far remained unaffected.
The OPEC+ meeting was postponed to December 5, with expectations that the group will extend production cuts to address a projected production surplus. Fitch Solutions’ BMI unit lowered its 2025 Brent price forecast from $78 to $76 per barrel, citing bearish market sentiment and potential downward pressure from Trump-era policies.
Further geopolitical developments added uncertainty, including a Russian missile strike on Ukrainian energy facilities and Iran’s announcement of plans to expand uranium enrichment. Analysts predict tighter sanctions on Iran could reduce its oil supply by up to 1 million barrels per day in early 2024.
