Aug 14 2024: On Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced his resignation, citing public dissatisfaction with political scandals and rising living costs that have marred his three-year tenure. His departure sets the stage for a leadership contest within his party.
“Politics cannot function without public trust,” Kishida stated at a press conference, revealing his decision not to seek re-election as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). “I made this heavy decision thinking of the public, with the strong will to push political reform forward.”
The LDP will hold a leadership election in September to select a new party president and, by extension, a new prime minister.
Kishida’s approval ratings dropped after he took office in 2021, following revelations about the LDP’s connections to the controversial Unification Church. His popularity further declined with the exposure of a slush fund involving unrecorded political donations at LDP fundraising events. Additionally, public discontent grew as wages lagged behind rising living costs amid Japan’s exit from years of deflation.
Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University, noted, “An LDP incumbent prime minister cannot run in the presidential race unless he’s assured of a victory. It’s like the grand champion yokozunas of sumo—you don’t just win, but you need to win with grace.”
The incoming LDP leader will need to restore public trust in the party and address several critical issues, including the cost of living, escalating geopolitical tensions with China, and the potential return of Donald Trump as U.S. president next year.
Economic and Military Policies Under Kishida
During his tenure as Japan’s eighth-longest-serving post-war leader, Kishida shifted away from previous economic policies focused on corporate profit and instead aimed to boost household income through wage hikes and increased share ownership. He led Japan through the COVID pandemic with extensive stimulus spending and appointed Kazuo Ueda as head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to steer the country away from his predecessor’s radical monetary policies.
In July, the BOJ unexpectedly raised interest rates as inflation took hold, causing stock market instability and a sharp rise in the yen. Kishida’s resignation could lead to tighter fiscal and monetary conditions, depending on his successor, said Shoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist at Mizuho Securities.
Kishida’s administration also marked a shift in Japan’s security policy, with a significant military buildup aimed at countering China’s territorial ambitions in East Asia. At Washington’s urging, Kishida improved strained relations with South Korea, fostering deeper security cooperation against North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs.
Naoya Okamoto, a 22-year-old office worker in Tokyo, expressed mixed feelings: “Personally, I wish he continued a little bit more as prime minister. Maybe he was stressed with the low ratings, and given the circumstances, he probably had no choice but to step down.”
Potential Successors
Former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba has already expressed interest in replacing Kishida, stating he would like to “fulfil his duty” if supported. Other potential candidates include Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Digital Minister Taro Kono, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi.
Experts suggest that the LDP must choose a fresh face untainted by current scandals to improve its chances in the general election, due by the third quarter of 2025. Political analyst Atsuo Ito warned, “If the LDP selects a new leader without addressing public criticism over political funding scandals, the party could face a significant defeat. The party needs someone young and free from current administration ties to present a new LDP.”
