Dec 16 2024: Chancellor Olaf Scholz plans to urge Germany’s parliament on Monday to declare no confidence in his leadership, initiating the formal process for early elections following the collapse of his coalition government.
The withdrawal of the neoliberal Free Democrats from the three-way coalition last month left Scholz’s Social Democrats and the Greens without a parliamentary majority, compounding challenges as Germany faces its most severe economic crisis in decades.
Germany’s constitutional framework, designed to avoid the political instability that contributed to the Nazi rise in the 1930s, gives the chancellor significant control over the path to early elections.
“If legislators take the course I am recommending, I will propose to the President that he dissolve parliament,” Scholz said on Wednesday after requesting the motion.
President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has confirmed that he will act in line with parliament’s decision and has agreed with party leaders on February 23 as the proposed date for the elections.
Should the no-confidence vote pass, Scholz and his ministers would remain in office in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed—a process that could take months if coalition negotiations are protracted.
During this interim period, Scholz has identified several measures that could gain cross-party support, including €11 billion in tax cuts, increased child benefits previously agreed upon by the former coalition, and initiatives to lower energy prices. Additional proposals under consideration include enhancing protections for the Constitutional Court, reducing energy costs, and extending a popular subsidized transport ticket.
The vote’s outcome remains uncertain. While Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is likely to back him, opposition conservatives—currently leading in polls—and the Free Democrats are expected to vote against him.
A potential wildcard is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which could vote in favor of Scholz despite being a party the chancellor and other parties oppose for its anti-democratic stance. Such an outcome, combined with support from the SPD and Greens, would leave Scholz in a politically awkward position. Most analysts believe he would resign in such a scenario, which would also pave the way for elections.
To avoid this possibility, many expect the Greens to abstain from the vote.
($1 = €0.9522)
